The Shallows of Despair

The independence movement finds itself bound in the shallows, we got here fast from the days of ‘secret plans’ and ‘eyes on the prize’, from the ‘no ifs, no buts’ referendum to Nothing, just emptiness and nowhere to turn.

The SNP does not appear to understand the position they are in, they have been in power far too long for any independence party to be in power without achieving independence. 

At the General Election 24 The Reform Party polled 7% a repeat of that performance at the Holyrood 26 election will give them around eight MSPs.  By the Holyrood election, the Tories will be revitalised under a new leader and will not have the burden of UK Tory policies to depress their vote.  The Labour Party in government will be able to offer Scotland ‘sweeties’  to secure votes. 

The SNP does not understand GE ’24 was not the tsunami; the tsunami is yet to come.

The Scottish Government is gaining a reputation for incompetence.  They are running the things the people care about badly, the NHS, Education, Housing, and Transport.

They have occupied themselves with divisive policies such as gender recognition and hate crimes and the various ‘green’ policies of dubious effectiveness that have had to be abandoned, the bottle return scheme, and highly protected marine areas.

In ‘26 they cannot feasibly run on their record.

But the biggest problem for the SNP is that they are an independence party with no strategy or even enthusiasm for independence.

They have driven the independence bus to a dead end and have absolutely no idea what to do now.

The Holyrood '26 election is not ‘21 when there was a realistic prospect of an independence supermajority.   The Holyrood '26 election will be about saving Independence if that is at all possible, or losing any chance for a generation. 

If we assume that the result in ‘26 matches the General Election result.  Then SNP would get around 40 seats. 

Now they may be telling themselves; ‘forty seats is OK and a period in opposition will do us good’ but 40 seats is the best-case scenario, things are probably going to get a whole lot worse for the SNP.

The voters are bored hearing about independence, they have been led up that hill far too often and they have stopped caring.  For a decade they have listened to talk of a second independence referendum.  When they should have been hearing about clear, thought-out plans for an independent Scotland and how independence will improve their lives and their family’s lives. 

The case for independence has got harder with Brexit.  The need for a border if Scotland rejoins the single market has never been properly understood and the mechanics explained.

The SNP did nothing to alleviate the impact of Brexit on the independence case. Not even when they held the balance, during the May Government when May was desperate to get one of her Brexit deals through parliament. 

The Fiscal Framework negotiated by Swinney has made matters worse for Scotland, with a loss of billions in revenue.  Who would trust this team to negotiate the independence deal with Westminster?

The working class has been abandoned by the political parties, they were made promises of a just Scotland and then as soon as the polls closed on September 18th they were forgotten.

Now they are just not voting. 

At the 2024 GE Dundee Central turnout was 52.5% and that does not take into account those that were not registered.  It can be fairly assumed that in Dundee less than half the eligible voters voted.  Their MP Chris Law is unconcerned he has his castle and his sports car. 

The betrayal of the working class to provide Westminster lifestyles for the politicians is shameful. The Yes voters put their trust in these politicians, and they were failed by them.  We have all failed, we have failed to ‘work as if we were in the early days of a better nation’.

Robin MacAlpine believes that there should be an internal SNP coup and that Swinney should be replaced.  This is a good idea but is there anyone in the SNP with the understanding of how much trouble they are in and the ability to mount such a coup? 

Possibly Stephen Flynn, who mounted a successful coup against Blackford and the Strurgeonites at Westminster.  However Flynn is a young man, he is most likely thinking ‘bide my time and I can be the leader of that band of forty'.  A couple of problems first it may not be forty it may not even be twenty.  But worse the MSPs he leads, will be those that got the prime constituencies and the top list places due to favours from Swinney, in other words, the Sturgeonites and the people that brought us to this sorry pass.

Still, Stephen may shrug and think, I can take twenty years to turn this around. Meanwhile, Scotland is stripped of her resources and far too many of our people continue to live in poverty.

What about the smaller independence parties? Greens do not have independence as a redline and are just as likely to go into coalition with Labour in 26 as to do anything positive about independence.

ALBA have failed to make progress in three years and like the SNP seem incapable of understanding the hole they are in or how to get out of it.  And a coup within Alex Salmond’s ALBA Party  (the clue is in the name) is even less likely than one in the SNP.

The Yes Movement itself is dissipated; there are initiatives but nothing and no-one pulling these initiatives together.

Salvo and Liberation are doing well but they are the first to admit they need a political vehicle.

This is where we are, what do we do?

To repair all this damage will be a long game but it starts with a step.

Who will take that first step?